Credit: Monty Brinton/CBS

With Stephen, JT, Taj and Erinn remaining in the quest for $1 million, who will triumph when Survivor: Tocantins ends Sunday night? The two-hour finale and one-hour reunion show on CBS caps a season of first impressions, lasting Coach-isms, and four surprising finalists. PEOPLE spole with host Jeff Probst to assess their strengths and weaknesses:

Erinn, The Wildcard: “Erinn wasn’t really ever a part of a strong alliance,” Probst says, “but she knew that and she was smart enough to make a big move and it’s really hard to win Survivor without making at least one really big, make-or-break move.” How She Could Win: “Even though she was an outsider on Timbira’s tribe,” Probst says, “I think that if she gets to the final, she can make a pretty compelling argument about why, out of respect, she deserves that vote even though she betrayed the on that jury.” Why She Won’t: “She is responsible for starting the turn that really flipped everything for Timbira and allowed three of Jalapao to make it to the final four, so that is hard to recover from.”

Stephen, The Dark Horse: “Stephen is sneaky, but he’s getting labeled as a sneak,” Probst says. “Stephen and JT have a great alliance because it is mutually beneficial. But if Stephen makes it to the final and he’s honest, he could win.” How He Could Win: Says Probst, “He would have to come on strong and say, ‘Now, I will tell you the truth. I am going to tell you why you should vote for me,’ and he might be able to sway somebody like Coach, who prides himself on honor and Tyson, who has a strange code of ethics himself, and you can never predict what he’s going to do because he will surprise you.” Why He Won’t: “Where Stephen is going to have his hands full is he’s not as likeable,” Probst says, “and as these last few days wind down, he has to convince that he is more worthy than Erinn, Taj and JT to getting the million dollars. He’s not doing anything different than anyone else is doing, but he’s not wearing it as well.”

Taj, The Underdog: “Taj has really surprised me,” Probst admits. “I didn’t really think she was playing all that great of a game but she definitely surprised me by what a great job she did by hanging around and making the right choices about who to be around but never being too involved in who was getting voted out so that she was never really irritating anybody. And she lasted longer than I thought she would. No wonder Eddie George married her!” How She Could Win: “Taj may have earned herself some really deep goodwill from certainly Stephen and JT,” Probst says. “If she makes it to the final two, she could easily win this game. She is in a really good spot because she is not a physical threat, so why vote her out?” Why She Won’t: “When you come to the end of the game, you really want to win a challenge to ensure that you are in control,” Probst says, “and if you don’t win, you are relying on someone else to take you to the end. She is too big of a threat to take to the end. She probably is going to have to win an immunity challenge.”

JT, The Underestimated: “JT is playing the country boy and the connotation is, ‘Oh, I’m just a simple boy from the country and just happy to be out here having fun and got to get back to my farm as soon as possible,'” Probst says. “No. JT personifies street smart. He gets and he’s playing this game so well.” How He Could Win: “I think for JT to get to the final, he has to win challenges,” Probst says. “I just can’t see a scenario for him to get there if he doesn’t win. He’s got a really fast and good read on and knows how to play to them to give them what they want to hear.” Why He Won’t: “I can’t believe he makes it to the final because he’s too big of a threat, ability-wise, for Erinn, Stephen and Taj to let him go that deep.” — Cynthia Wang

Tell us: Who will win Survivor: Tocantins?Monty Brinton/CBS