Joe Biden and Donald Trump Nearly Tied in New Poll on 2024 Presidential Race

The results show Biden barely trailing Trump in a hypothetical, yet likely, general election rematch. Taking the margin of error into consideration, the polling company calls it a "statistical dead heat"

Joe Biden, Donald Trump
President Joe Biden (L) and former president Donald Trump. Photo: Getty Images

Two likely candidates in the 2024 race for the White House are neck and neck, according to a new poll released Wednesday.

Joe Biden and Donald Trump came close to a tie, with 47% of respondents saying they preferred the Democrat and 53% saying they preferred the Republican when asked, "In a general election race between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump who would you prefer?"

With a 4.5% margin of error, the poll is considering it a "statistical dead heat."

Maury Blackman, CEO of the data company Premise, announced the results of the Premise Poll in an episode of his podcast, Great Minds Think Data.

Biden, 79, confirmed early in his first term that he intends to run for reelection in the 2024 cycle with Vice President Kamala Harris on the Democratic ticket.

Asked if he will seek reelection in a December interview, Biden said, "Yes," but then added, "I'm a great respecter of fate. Fate has intervened in my life many, many times. If I'm in the health I'm in now, in good health, then in fact I would run again."

Trump Biden
Donald Trump (L); Joe Biden. JIM WATSON/Getty Images (2)

Trump, 76, began hinting about a third run for White House almost as soon as he moved out but has not yet officially launched his candidacy, though his fundraising efforts have drawn scrutiny as he continues to tease a 2024 bid.

"In my own mind, I've already made that decision," he told New York magazine earlier this month, adding that it's not so much a question of if he'll run but whether he'll make the announcement before or after this year's midterm elections in November.

"I would say my big decision will be whether I go before or after," he said in an interview with New York. "You understand what that means?"

The Premise Poll's findings of a potential Trump advantage are based on submissions from 635 adults who are 18 year and older and live in the U.S. Their responses to a series of questions were collected on July 15 and 16, according to information provided by Premise.

Former President Donald Trump looks on before speaking during a tour to an unfinished section of the border wall on June 30, 2021 in Pharr, Texas. Gov. Abbott has pledged to build a state-funded border wall between Texas and Mexico as a surge of mostly Central American immigrants crossing into the United States has challenged U.S. immigration agencies. So far in 2021, U.S. Border Patrol agents have apprehended more than 900,000 immigrants crossing into the United States on the southern border. (Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images); U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks on infrastructure at the Portland Air National Guard base on April 21, 2022 in Portland, Oregon. The speech marks the beginning of the president's multi-day trip to the Northwest, with stops in Portland and Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Nathan Howard/Getty Images)
Brandon Bell/Getty; Nathan Howard/Getty

"Weights were applied at the close of data collection to replicate the distribution of age group and gender in the US population," the company said in a press release. "The population distributions for targeted weighting (the adjusting variables) were obtained through the U.S. Census."

On Election Day in 2024, Trump will be 78 and Biden will be just a couple weeks from his 82nd birthday.

Asked about a rematch in two years, Biden said in December, "You're trying to tempt me now. Sure, why would I not run against Donald Trump if he's the nominee? That would increase the prospect of running."

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