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Survivor: Caramoan: Jeff Probst Ranks the Top 5

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Monty Brinton/CBS

Survivor has been on for 26 seasons now, but the long-running reality show still manages to stay interesting year after year. Case in point: Survivor: Caramoan. With medical evacuations, shocking blindsides and epic meltdowns, the season started out slowly but eventually picked up steam around the merge.

In anticipation for Sunday’s finale, Jeff Probst – who has gone on record saying that Survivor: Caramoan was one of his favorite seasons in recent history – handicaps the final five. Who will win? Who doesn’t have a prayer? Probst breaks it down for PEOPLE.

John Cochran
If he gets to the end against anyone other than Eddie, I think he has an excellent shot at winning. He’s played a great game so far, and if he finishes strong the appeal of the underdog story will be hard to resist. But if Eddie wins his way to the end, Cochran could be in trouble as everybody is looking for the chance to get rid of him.

Dawn Meehan
I’d give Dawn conditional odds on winning. She can win but only if she goes up against the right people. She hasn’t played a strong enough game to claim she outplayed everybody, but she has certainly outplayed many. Her emotional roller coaster could work for her as a sympathy vote or could work against her as just annoying. She needs to make a big move or win a big challenge to be able to face the jury and say, “I deserve it.”

Erik Reichenbach
He’s gotten this close before but made a tragic and historic Survivor mistake when he gave up immunity. Though he’s been fairly quiet this season, if he can get to the jury with the right people Erik could win this game. He will probably have to win his way to the end through the challenges, otherwise he might be voted out as a threat. What’s going against him is he is exhausted both mentally and physically.

Eddie Fox
Although he has been on the outside the entire game, if he can last until the end, that outsider status becomes an instant asset. Because he has had no control in the game he has not been in charge of voting anyone out so he hasn’t alienated anybody on the jury. Cochran and Dawn have major enemies as a result of their blindsides. If Eddie can win a couple of challenges he could be a millionaire.

Sherri Biethman
I feel badly for Sherri. She has lasted as long as the other four but unless everybody else quits or is evacuated I don’t think she can win. It’s a tough spot to be in. She’s a real person and I think she senses that it’s going to be difficult for her. On the plus side, I don’t see a scenario in which Sherri doesn’t make it to the final tribal.

Monty Brinton/CBS(5)